Tag Archive for 'presidential politics'

Erickson: Election Eve Forecasts!!

Erick Erickson is in D.C. to monitor the election for RedState. In this interview Erick offers election eve insight into what is tight and what is not. Worth a listen, I assure you.

In an effort to get this posted, I will forgo a lot of commentary. Here are the highlights–as I heard them:

Voter turnout: 60%! I thought it was supposed to be above 75%. Early voting always favors the Democrats, but the Republicans will be at the polls in the closing days.

McCain can pull it out if he wins Pennsylvania. It is closer than we think.

Chambliss is vulnerable, Martin could win. Runoff will hurt Chambliss. Criticizes Chambliss’ campaign manager, Tom Perdue.

Barrow (D-12th), Broun (R-10th) and Kingston (R-1st) are safe wins.

Jim Marshall (D-8th) is in a tight race. Voter turnout for Obama in the district will help him. Close!

Erick thinks 2010 will be the year to pick off Marshall, after the Democrats have been in power for 2 years!

In the General Assembly, the Republicans may lose 5 or 6 seats in the House. If they lose more than that, it may impact whether or not Glenn Richardson is Speaker again. The election for Speaker is scheduled for November 10th, quick, quick, before anyone has a chance to gang up on Glenn.

The Latest 538 Polls!

Obama: 348.2 Electoral Votes
McCain: 189.8 Electoral Votes

Obama: 52.1 % Popular Vote
McCain: 46.5 % Popular Vote

FiveThirtyEight.com says:

As before, the three critical races for any scenario in which the Democrats earn a 60-seat majority are the three vulnerable Republican incumbents in the South. These are Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, and Roger Wicker in Mississippi. All three races lean Republican to the tune of about 2 points.

SNL Does it Again! But Was it With McCain’s Approval?