Tag Archive for 'presidential-campaigns'

The Latest 538 Polls!!

Published
by
Wilson
on November 2, 2008
in Podcast
. 0 Comments

Obama: 344 Electoral Votes
McCain: 194 Electoral Votes

Obama: 52.2 % Popular Vote
McCain: 46.6 % Popular Vote

FiveThirtyEight.com says:

Today’s Polls, 11/1
This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.

I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.

We can probably assume, however, that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being. Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column.

That leaves our five states in play. The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*
2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

That’s basically what it comes down to, although I’m sure each campaign would claim that there are a larger number of states in play.

*-*

Sorry to get off on such a tangent about this; I wanted to talk, for a change, about something other than whether the POLLS ARE TIGTHENING (!!!) or not. But as to that question, the evidence is again somewhat mixed. Contrary to other recent days, Obama gained ground in the national trackers on average, picking up points in Research 2000, Gallup and Rasmussen. The Zogby that Matt Drudge went on about turned out to be the only poll where he lost ground, while ABC/Post, IPD/TIPP and Hotline held steady.

However, our model does perceive about a point’s worth of tightening in the state polls. And the Pennslyvania polls have probably tightened by more than one point, although it is important to note that the four polls that show the state in the mid- single digits (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, ARG and Strategic Vision) have all had Republican leans so far this cycle. Pennsylvania is still an extreme long shot for John McCain — Obama is more likely to win Arizona than McCain the Keystone — just not quite the long-shot that it had looked like a couple of days ago.

As a final word of warning, proceed cautiously with any polls that were in the field last night. Friday nights are difficult enough to poll, and holidays are difficult enough to poll, but when a Friday night coincides with a holiday (in this case, Halloween), getting an appropriate sample is all but impossible

And, if you are interested in the Senate races…

Meanwhile, the three Southern seats in Georgia, Kentucky and particularly Mississippi are increasingly looking close-but-not-quite for the Democrats. The surges of Jim Martin and Bruce Lunsford in the first two races appeared to be dictated principally by the financial crisis and the attendant bailout, as the Republican incumbents in both races voted for the bailout bill. However, given the relative lack of bad financial news over the past couple of weeks, it is not surprising that they have stalled out some. Martin, though, probably remains in a stronger position than our numbers indicate, as I think some of these turnout models are conservative in Georgia given what has transpired in the early voting; at the very least, he has a good chance of salvaging a run-off.

Of CorsI Wrote “Obama Nation”

Published
by
Wilson
on September 12, 2008
in Podcast
. 0 Comments

Jerome Corsi made the rounds on all the talk shows promoting his new book, “The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality.” Corsi seems to have a particular interest in people that run for president. You may remember him. In the last presidential election he wrote “Unfit for Command: Swift Boat Veterans Speak Out Against John Kerry.” He is still proud of that one. I didn’t like the attack on Kerry, so I decided to see if I could find out if this was just another smear campaign or was there something sinister about Obama that I needed to know.

Corsi is currently a reporter with World Net Daily, a conservative so-called, news website.

I asked Corsi what he wanted everyone to know about Obama. His reply was surprisingly mundane. The two things we got around to discussing were that Obama was liberal (actually, Corsi says “leftist liberal) and he was going to raise taxes on 90% of Americans.

Corsi’s book has resulted in anti-Corsi websites and publications which contend that many of his allegations are false. Corsi essentially admitted that there were some errors in his book, but said the attacks focused on minor discrepancies, and not the major contentions. It seems obvious in talking with him that he loves the controversy; it sells books, gets him interviews and makes him rich. Can’t say I blame him, but neither can I say this guy is a serious historian.

I don’t know about the errors, but I didn’t consider it a revelation to find Obama being accused of being a liberal or a leftist liberal, or that he might raise taxes (but, I don’t think it will be on 90% of working Americans). Hell, I am one of the most conservative people I know (used to be a Republican) when it comes to waste and efficiency in government, but I am also a liberal, a damn big liberal when it comes to me versus corporate America. People should win that struggle, not corporate America. The problem in this country is we like simple name tags for complex issues.

As for raising taxes, Americans may never admit it, but somebody better raise somebody’s damn taxes. Bush tax cuts haven’t kept the economy out of the toilet and this administration has made deficit spending a thing to be proud of. Either we pay more in taxes or our kids and grandkids do. We are the ones who allowed this, and I think this generation ought to pay the bill, not my kids.

Of course, that kind of talk is heresy. All Corsi has to do is say “Obama is going to raise taxes!” and half the brains (actually, a little more than half) in this country go dark, no further thought, just total blind acceptance that this must be true and must be bad.

I am reading Corsi’t book, but have not finished it. I try to be read books that I am probably not going to like to see if there is anything in them that I consider valid or worthwhile. So far, I think this one is not worth my time, but that is probably due to the fact that I am suspicious of Corsi’s purpose. Sorry, Jerome, but the purpose of the book is not to make anyone stop and think, just to stop thinking. The sad thing is that many Americans, too many, prefer the latter to the former.

But Corsi says he is no Republican. He is a supporter of the Constitution Party which is nothing more than the right wingingest of Republicans manipulating the constitution without a clue as to what it means to anyone but themselves. But, that is another interview.

 
 Jerome Corsi, Author, Obama Nation [27:18m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (129)

The Political Analysis You Have Been Waiting For: GriftDrift on Palin!

Published
by
Wilson
on September 5, 2008
in Podcast
. 1 Comment

As you can see, I have just been too, too busy lately and have not posted a lot of recent interviews. Don’t worry, they are coming, but a guy has to make a living. Nonetheless, when James Williams (GriftDrift) is the guest, I just have to make that extra effort.

After almost two weeks of political conventions, there is enough to talk about, but after Palin’s unveiling, there is only one thing to chew on: the pitbull with lipstick. James does a much better job of putting all of this into the proper perspective than those pin-heads on the networks.

You will have to listen to this one if you want to appreciate real political analysis, but here are a few highlights:

First, is there a time warp at the RNC? They seem to be blaming everything from energy/oil, the economy, deficit spending and bigger government on the people in power–as if it ain’t been them for 7 years! Reality check, please!

And everytime these people said they respected Hillary and thought Obama was a great guy, I wanted to gag. I never cease to be amazed at the depth of their insincerity.

Does Obama have the experience to be President? Yep! Does Palin? The jury is still out.

Is McCain brillant is choosing Palin? Only time will tell, but it is a risky move by the Maverick. I don’t think women are fooled by the choice into thinking that any woman in any position in the White House, even a right-wing Republican, is better than none.

What is off limits? Pregnant daughter? Working woman? Neglecting family responsibilities? A child with disabilities? (But, can you hear the right-wing outrage if a Democratic mother chose work over family? I thought that was the breakdown of the family all those people thought had ruined America. FLIP-FLOP!)

And fair game: experience to step into the shoes of the oldest guy to be elected president.

Yes, Palin hit it out of the park. I would vote for her in a minute for “National Reader.” She could read everyone’s speech, including McCain’s when he has to go to bed early. She could read bills in the Senate. Maybe even have a regular podcast and read the newspaper to the nation. Yes, she can certainly read a prepared speech which she did not write.

But, as James points out, Palin has yet to be vetted. There are only 2 months for Americans to get to know her. Two months for her to explain that she did support the Bridge to Nowhere, even though she denied it in her speech. It is going to be two intense months for Sarah Palin.

I don’t oppose Sarah Palin because of who or what she is as an individual. I oppose her because of the misguided policies of a party that talks about smaller government and has spent us into more debt and larger government that any prior administration. I oppose her because she has no intention of building bi-partisanship–she’s a pit bull and pit bulls don’t do that! I oppose her because she is part of a party that lies and decieves us without shame or apology when the lie is exposed.

There was a time when i thought John McCain was a different kind of politician. His conduct during this campaign has proven to me that he will do anything, pander to any group, say anything and choose an inexperienced person for VP if it pleases “the base,” whatever it takes to be elected. If elected, the only thing McCain is going to change is absolutely nothing!

 
 James Williams, GriftDrift Blogger [31:03m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (207)

Erick Discusses Huckabee and The Republican Field!

Published
by
Wilson
on December 6, 2007
in Podcast
. 0 Comments

I woke up to Mike Huckabee this morning. He is all over the place. Polls have him ahead in Iowa, and behind in New Hampshire. He was being accused of letting rapists out of prison to murder innocent people. I thought that was another Mike (Dukakis)! Apparently, some of his boost in the polls is the result of the recent “CNN/YouTube Debate” in which Huckabee correctly answered the most important political question of this campaign: “Do you believe this book?”

So, I called Erick Erickson to find out what the heck is going on with Republicans! The interesting thing is that Erick interpreted the question as being a challenge by a non-believer asking if the candidates were dumb enough to believe the Bible. Curiously, I had exactly the opposite impression: a believer challenging the candidates to state, without qualification, that they believed every word of the Bible. The difference in interpretation is fascinating to me. I wonder who heard it right.

But it really doesn’t matter. The question was one of those that is meaningless in the political arena. I wouldn’t believe a politician that gave the “religiously correct” answer. It was a set-up question, and the issue Erick and I discuss is how did we get to the point that such questions pass for political debate? I get the impression from Erick that a lot of the campaigns were not particularly happy with a lot of the questions. In fact, Erick indicates he is trying to organize another debate with the Republican candidates since the CNN/YouTube debate was such a farce.

Erick thinks CNN picked the wrong questions, wondering why questions were asked on religion, abortion and immigration. According to Erick, these are not the issues that Republicans want to know about. I am glad to hear that, but if this is true, it means two things: (1) some people, maybe a lot of them, don’t know what Republicans want, because I think these are issues a lot of Republicans here in Georgia are interested in, and (2) the evangelical branch of the Republican party is not nearly as influential as it was in previous campaigns.

The point of this discussion was simply that what is passed off as “debates” in this election cycle is pretty much nothing more than entertainment. It seems to me that a lot of the questions that get presented by these “people” moderators, are intentionally selected to make the candidates squirm and hopefully give the sound bite of the night.

Did Huckebee’s answer about religion spur his rise in the polls? Erick points out that Huckabee has a 10 member campaign staff (that’s nationwide, by the way) and in Iowa, Huckabee has spent only about $300,000, compared with Romney’s $7 million. He thinks Huckabee’s popularity is due to the fact that people are tired of insiders. That’s the reason Obama is doing well against Hillary. People want a change.

Erick sees Fred Thompson and John McCain as the only two Republican candidates who have a chance of bridging the diverse interests of the Republican Party, rather than dividing it. Rudy isn’t liked by the social conservatives, Romney isn’t trusted by the evangelicals and Huckabee is running into problems with the fiscal conservatives. Erick doesn’t think Ron Paul has a chance. So, if by the end of Super Tuesday, the nomination is not locked in, McCain or Thompson may be the go to guys for party unity. Interesting, very interesting.

Erick thinks Huckabee’s current rise will be short-lived and he sees it as Rudy-Romney contest. He also thinks people are beginning to realize that were it not for 9-11, Rudy would be just another big-city mayor.

Erick refers to Huckabee as the “passive voice.” I am not entirely sure I understand the meaning, but he gave several examples where Huckabee would make a statement about some problem (CEO compensation, for example), and yet, when asked what he would do about the issue, he seems to back off and say he didn’t mean to imply that government needed to do anything about it.

He also referred to Huckabee as a slick preacher. As for the pardon of the rapist in Arkansas, Erick points out that Huckabee, as Governor, did not have the power to pardon the felon, that was done by the Pardons and Parole Board. The issue is the extent to which Huckabee pushed the Board to take action and pardon the guy. He points out that there was apparently a lot of sympathy generated for the rapist because before he was convicted he was forcibly abducted and castrated by a vigilante group.

As for the Democrats, Erick still thinks Hillary will be the nominee. I am not so sure.

One last point about the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran that indicates Iran gave up its nuclear program several years ago. Last year it reported the opposite: Iran was increasing its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. So what is going on? As Erick points out, neither he, nor anyone else trusts the intelligence community any more. That’s a sad state of affairs, but more troubling is the idea that we went to war in Iraq as a result, at least in part, of flawed intelligence and a few weeks ago, it looked like we were going to war with Iran, again based on flawed intelligence. This is not the way to run a country!

Erick thinks heads will roll, but probably not publically I just wish the President would respond in a manner that indicates he consistently reads the newspapers, even if it is the comic page.

At the end of the interview, I spend a few minutes talking with Lisa Chesser, who won election to the Vidalia City Council on Tuesday. CONGRATULATIONS Lisa!!

 
 Erick Erickson, Republican Strategist [27:17m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (260)