Fawaz Gerges is an expert on the Middle East and Islam. He holds a Chair in International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence College in New York. At present, he is a Carnige Scholar residing in the Middle East studying the complex relationships between Islamist, Radicals and everything else that goes into Arab politics. I saw him on “Bill Moyers Journal” and knew this was a guy who knew what he was talking about.
Everyone knows that Iraq is a mess. Everyone knows that we would be better off if we had never invaded Iraq. The question for me focuses more on whether or not we have any chance of achieving our goals in Iraq. Will our “export” of Jeffersonian democracy to the Middle East take root? What is going to happen when we leave, because we will leave? Is the surge working? What deals have we struck with one group, the Sunnis (the minority), at what cost with regard to our relationship with all the other groups, particularly the Shia?
The centuries old rivalries and conflicts between Sunni and Shia is pretty much impossible for Americans to understand. Even if we can glimpse the origin of the conflict, can we possibly understand how these differences affect our chances for success? Bush ’41 knew enough to stay out of Baghdad in 1991. Bush ’43 has created a legacy which he richly deserves.
I got the impression from Fawaz that it is just about impossible at this time for anyone to stop the natural progression of events which will lead Iraq through a civil war that may last for years, after which some form of national government may emerge. But it may not resemble what our president envisioned when he declared “Mission Accomplished!”
Fawaz also comments on our current strategy of buying peace in various areas by arming the local Sunni leaders and essentially giving them control of specific territory in order to keep the peace. Not only does this undermine the national government which we are trying to create, but who knows what effect this favoritism toward one sect will have on the others.
No wonder the Iraqi Parliment went on vacation!
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