Erick Erickson is in D.C. to monitor the election for RedState. In this interview Erick offers election eve insight into what is tight and what is not. Worth a listen, I assure you.
In an effort to get this posted, I will forgo a lot of commentary. Here are the highlights–as I heard them:
Voter turnout: 60%! I thought it was supposed to be above 75%. Early voting always favors the Democrats, but the Republicans will be at the polls in the closing days.
McCain can pull it out if he wins Pennsylvania. It is closer than we think.
Chambliss is vulnerable, Martin could win. Runoff will hurt Chambliss. Criticizes Chambliss’ campaign manager, Tom Perdue.
Barrow (D-12th), Broun (R-10th) and Kingston (R-1st) are safe wins.
Jim Marshall (D-8th) is in a tight race. Voter turnout for Obama in the district will help him. Close!
Erick thinks 2010 will be the year to pick off Marshall, after the Democrats have been in power for 2 years!
In the General Assembly, the Republicans may lose 5 or 6 seats in the House. If they lose more than that, it may impact whether or not Glenn Richardson is Speaker again. The election for Speaker is scheduled for November 10th, quick, quick, before anyone has a chance to gang up on Glenn.
12th District voters should send incumbent John Barrow back to Washington.
TWO-TERM CONGRESSMAN John Barrow is a centrist Democrat who generally votes according to the needs of Georgia’s 12th District, not the will of liberal Democratic leaders in Congress.
His record is largely pro-business, pro-growth, pro-natural security, pro-Savannah port and pro-Second Amendment – positions in tune with the majority of constituents he represents. For this reason and others, we recommend that district voters keep the Savannah legislator in the U.S. House for another term.
Mr. Barrow is one of those lawmakers who has matured and grown while in public office. In 2004, when he knocked off Republican incumbent Max Burns, there was considerable concern the freshman legislator would be a rubber stamp for the high-tax, anti-business wing of his party.
Fortunately, that didn’t happen. Indeed, he showed his independence by voting to protect gun manufacturers from frivolous lawsuits, which helped earn him this year’s endorsement of the National Rifle Association’s political action committee. In 2006, he won a close race in a rematch with Mr. Burns, whom this newspaper endorsed at that time.
But for this election, we believe Mr. Barrow has earned a return trip to Washington. We support his candidacy.
Put simply, he has proven his worth and his mettle. He understands that the road to prosperity and a better life in this part of Georgia is paved with jobs and paychecks, not handouts and giveaways. He knows that the nation must have the necessary tools to protect itself against terrorists. He correctly realizes that the prescription for energy independence includes safe and responsible drilling as an ingredient.
This may come as a surprise, but Mr. Barrow recently earned a higher score than U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Savannah, from the pro-business U.S. Chamber of Commerce. On the chamber’s latest scorecard on key votes, Mr. Barrow earned an 80 percent (out of 100), tying him with U.S. Rep. Tom Price, R-Roswell, at the top of Georgia’s delegation.
Mr. Kingston, who’s solid on economic issues, got a 65. (Mr. Kingston’s cumulative score during his 16 years in office is 87 percent; Mr. Barrow’s score is 74 percent.)
Liberal Democrats babble that groups like the chamber are simply arm-twisters for the Republican Party. But they are the lawmakers who are out of touch, as bashing business only cripples job creation and growth at a time this country sorely needs it.
That’s why Mr. Barrow is one of several dozen conservative and moderate House Dems known as “blue dog Democrats” who don’t march in lockstep with Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (Southern Democrats once were known as yellow-dog Democrats – party loyalists who’d vote for a yellow dog if it had a “D” after its name. Blue dogs are those who have been choked blue by liberal party leaders.) This bloc influences legislation in a positive way within the majority party.
Mr. Barrow broke ranks with Ms. Pelosi and voted to support continued funding for U.S. troops in Iraq and against mandated timetables for withdrawal. We criticized his opposition to the surge, however. And we remain deeply critical of his support of a bill, which Barack Obama supports, that will do away with the secret ballot process to unionize workplaces. Such a law, which we hope Republican senators have enough votes to filibuster, will spell doom for any economic recovery.
But on balance, Mr. Barrow has been good for the 12th District. He fairly reflects this politically balanced area, which stretches from Savannah on the coast to Augusta upriver and includes many smaller communities and rural areas in between. Republican opponent John Stone, a former aide to Max Burns and the late Charles Norwood, is well-versed on the issues. But we are concerned that his protectionist slant on trade could hurt Savannah’s port and the region.
Conversely, Mr. Barrow has been solidly behind the port. He could play a key role in getting needed federal funds for its deepening. This blue dog can hunt, and voters should ship the incumbent back to the House next Tuesday.
This is the first time SDN has not endorsed Jack Kingston. The edorsement explains why:
……It is painful to no longer endorse our friend, Jack Kingston. Many of us know Jack and his family personally and cherish their friendship and their public service. Jack Kingston is a good man, personally, but he has never had a viable or credible Democratic opponent to truly consider.
And these times force us to step back, and take a hard look at his actual voting record on critical issues including fighting all measures to set a timeline to get out of Iraq, his failure to fight runaway Federal spending as a member of the House Appropriations committee that develops the budget, his leadership in defense of Tom Delay and President Bush as well as Republican party smear campaigns this election cycle, and his failure to file his personal financial disclosure information due last May 15 even though he was up for re-election. These votes and others lead us to believe that it is time for a change in 1st District representation.
Frankly, Jack began to lose our support last Feb. 27 when he appeared on the Dan Abrams show and said it was okay to “question Sen. Barack Obama’s patriotism because he doesn’t regularly wear an American flag lapel pin.”
Problem was, sitting there on the TV set with the cameras rolling, Jack wasn’t wearing a flag pin. These types of smear tactics are repugnant and demean elected officials in an era when voters are begging for straight talk on the issues versus old-style personal attack politics.
Yet, he continues to try to use such tactics, seeking to smear his opponent Bill Gillespie in this race, accusing him of lying about his educational degrees and other achievements, despite two news organizations having confirmed that Gillespie’s resume is accurate………
And its reasons for endorsing John Barrow are:
John Barrow deserves our support for another term as the Congressman from Georgia’s 12th District.
While his voting patterns may not be liberal enough for some in the 12th District, particularly in the Savannah area, his legal mind continues to serve us well, demonstrating a pattern of pulling apart legislation and voting on the quality of a bill and its intention versus just following a straight political party line.
He voted against the bailout bill because there was “too much downside for the taxpayer. There were specific areas of fraud and abuse that were skillfully manipulated out of the final product,” he says. That approach to in-depth study is what we depend on from our elected representatives.
And we must send representatives to Congress who will take tough stands on the legislative issues ahead for the 111th congress, issues in addition to current financial crisis matters. One of those issues for the 12th Congressional District is needed reform of the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) legislation, up for renewal in the next session. Improving public schools and developing a more qualified work force are seismic issues for the district.
Barrow shares our views, believing that NCLB was a good idea that “got hijacked from how it was designed. There is nothing wrong with standards, nothing wrong with being sure that Georgia is getting the same bang for its educational buck as Texas, but the Bush administration failed from the beginning to fund the bill, which is exactly what they promised they would not do if it was enacted,” he states. “So we’re raiding the local tax base to continue to fund federally mandated educational programs.” We couldn’t make these important points any more succinctly than John’s own words.
A 2008 study from the U.S. Department of Education, in the recently released “Reading First Impact Study: Interim Report,” states that the performance of students in 12 states who were in grades one to three during the 2004-5 and 2005-6 school years and completed the Reading First Program, a major billion dollar a year NCLB effort, had proven “ineffective.” A final report on the impacts from 2004-2007 (three school years with Reading First funding) and on the relationships between changes in instructional practice and student reading comprehension is expected in late 2008. It’s an issue ahead that needs tough analysis, and tough stands to ensure funding in a time when there will be little money to spare.
His opponent, John Stone (R), represents the old school party politics of big lobbyists and insider power players. He has spoken out on few issues in this campaign with the exception of his recent one-day media event in Savannah to propose his solution to the U.S. economic crisis, including ideas that cannot be enacted, such as imposing a moratorium on home mortgage foreclosures.
Barrow has high marks and endorsements from business organizations such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. And his position on immigration is realistic in light of the needs of Georgia and the 12th District. He supports securing the borders and enforcing the laws we have but without dramatic measures supported by many.
Most importantly, John Barrow is accessible and in the district often, spending endless weekends in its small towns, meeting face-to-face with voters, versus leaving all the constituent work to paid staffers.
John Barrow is a Blue Dog, fiscal conservative Democrat in an era when we’re all feeling pretty blue about the economy, and we need his take on the solutions
John Stone is excited about his opportunity to unseat incumbent Democratic Congressman, John Barrow. That is going to be a hard job, since Barrow is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress.
John is expecting a heavy voter turnout, maybe as high as 80%. According to John, the race is neck and neck. He claims that in a recent poll he is a percentage point ahead of Barrow. He also chastises Barrow for not debating him on several occasions.
John doesn’t appreciate the current trend of blaming the Republicans for the economic woes of America. He thinks the Democrats deserve some (maybe a lot) of the blame as well. While I agree that the current woes go back decades and encompass both Democratic and Republican administrations, I believe the party that has been in power for almost 8 years, that has cut taxes, while spending spiraled out of control has to be responsible for what occurs on their watch.
Having said that, I should say that John Stone is not fan of the Bush administration and acknowledges that it has been disastrous.
Stone accuses Barrow of “gaming” his votes, i.e., voting both ways on the same issue. I am not exactly sure how someone does that, but according to Stone, Barrow tells everyone he voted their way.
Stone is in favor of drilling more domestic oil. However, my understanding is that the oil companies are simply not drilling new wells, whether offshore or on land already approved for drilling. They aren’t drilling because they aren’t going to invest in a new well based on a temporary increas in oil prices. Look how the price has fluctuated in just the last few months. Our problems wanted be solved by drilling for oil offshore or in ANWR.
Stone supports alternative fuels and thinks we need to have a major effort to achieve oil independence in a decade or so. I wholeheartedly agree, but the question is where do we get the money? I asked John how America was ever going to raise the funds for these new programs without raising taxes. He said that he did not think we needed to raise taxes and would not have to raise taxes to do what we need to do. With all due respect to John and other Republicans who “believe” we can do more (develop alternative energy) without raising taxes, I can only say that doesn’t make sense. We have more than doubled our national debt in 7 years of Bush. We have had tax cuts after tax cuts. If tax cuts stimulate the economy, then why haven’t the tax cuts stimulated it enough to balance the budget. Why? Because tax cuts are a lie? You may get a dime of cut, but your kid ends up with a dollar of debt.
Until the Republicans and the Democrats have enough honesty to tell the American people that we have to raise taxes, I do not see much hope of ever doing what we need to do to put America back on the right path.
I must admit that John doesn’t sound like a Republican when it comes to talking about jobs. He thinks NAFTA was bad for American industry. He thinks we need to restrict imports and protect American jobs and products. I agree, but I am afraid that horse is out of the barn and I am not sure we can ever get him back in. The world is now flat! This idea of protecting American industry and jobs, sounds good but it certainly isn’t mainstream Republican policy. Hell, I am not sure it is even Democratic policy. Corporations, like Walmart, don’t want barriers to importing toys from China, even if they kill us.
John is also in favor of a national sales tax and/or a flat tax. This is my biggest disagreement with him. While I agree we need tax reform, I just do not understand how anyone can suggest a national sales tax to replace all other taxes is fair. The sales tax is a regressive tax. The poor and the middle class would pay much more of their income toward the tax than wealthy people. You pay sales tax on everything, including hospital bils, legal bills, etc. That may be fine for people with money, but people that spend 100% of what they earn will pay more because there are no exceptions, no deductions.
I also don’t understand how John can support the elimination of the income tax. It is like there is something inherently wrong with taxing income and inherently right in taxing sales. Both make sense to me and have their place in a broad based tax system. What we need is less loopholes and corporations that move their funds to other companies to avoid paying taxes.
I guess you could call John Barrow a maverick. He was first elected to Congress in 2004 and since that time has voted contrary to the Democratic leadership on things like immigration. Most recently he voted against the baleout of Wall Street. As John explains in this interview, the Bush Administration pushed fast and hard to get a $700 billion baleout for corporate business, but failed to provide adequate consideration and protection for the homeowners. Further, John, and others, were not satisfied with what appeared to be a blank check for the Bush Adminstration. For example, they wanted to approve the baleout in stages, rather than all or nothing. As it is, the Bush Administration could conceivably get control of all $700 billion before they leave office.
Another issue was the “golden parchute” for Wall Street executives. John says the attempts to impose restrictions on executive compensation were so watered down as to be meaningless.
Of course, the economy is the issue that is on everyone’s mind. When Bush took office the national debt was about $4.5 trillion. Today, it is over $10 trillion. When Bush took office I was a Republican, but it took about 2 years to convince me that he wasn’t a Republican. Oh, Bush and his cronies, say they are Republicans but they do not have a clue about the Republicanism of Barry Goldwater.
John believes it is time to start protecting the American economy. While it may be important to open up foreign markets, if doing so destoys the American industry and workers’ jobs, it is not worth it. For that reason, John has voted against several trade bills.
When it comes to energy, John favors an all out effort to achieve energy independence. We should have learned in the 1970s that our energy policy should not be tied to the price of oil. If we only focus on energy issues when the price of oil is high, all the oil producing countries have to do is to lower the price and we forget about it until the next crisis. What we have needed for 30 years and not had, is leadership. Leaders see the future, think about what is coming and steer the country on a safe course. Politicians put tomorrow first, because tomorrow they are up for re-election, tomorrow they have a fundraiserm, and tomorrow they can hide behind something else to cover their sins. Tomorrow is already too late!
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