What Is Goin’ On?

Erick just returned from a Values Voters Summit in DC last weekend. I didn’t know that when I asked for the interview, but it did prompt a question or two. Like, does the religious right have the influence in politics that it had 4 years ago? The answer is interesting.

The first thing Erick told me was that some Republicans are mad at him for getting Democrats elected. That’s good! We need more bipartisanship. I assume Erick was referring to his support of Robert Reichert, a Democrat, in the mayoral race in Macon. Believe it or not, I worked for Robert’s law firm in 1979-1981 when his father was the Senior Partner–before Robert went to law school even.

Fred Thompson: Fred made a better non-candidate than candidate. Erick’s information is that the Thompson campaign is in the “play it safe mode.”

Mike Huckabee: Huckabee was a close second to Romney in the Values Voters’ straw poll. According to Erick, many of the Republicans who are focused on value issues are not happy with Thompson and are turning to Huckabee. However, Huckabee scares the business community to death because of his fiscal policies.

The 2008 election may determine whether or not the grand coalition put together by Ronald Reagan of business and religious interests can survive the ideological failures of the Bush administration. According to Erick, the fiscal conservatives (I guess the ones that are tired of deficit spending to finance the Iraq War rather than the ones who want tax cuts.) are ready to jump from the GOP and support Hillary. Now that’s a thought to ponder!

Apparently, the business interests believe the social conservatives have gotten more for their dollar since 2000. As Erick says, the fiscal conservatives got the tax cuts, and the social guys got everything else. I am not sure two Supreme Court appointments, a partial birth abortion ban and a stem cell veto are enough to represent everything else.

Another interesting thing is Erick’s statement that the conservative right is shifting its focus from abortion to gay rights, particularly gay marriage. Since abortions are decreasing and polls suggest people are less likely to support a total ban on abortion, gay rights and gay marriage are the new frontier.

Erick suggests that while Christian leaders, like Chuck Colson and James Dobson, don’t necessarily agree with the shift in focus, there is a growing appreciation within the Christian community that legislating morals may not be a good thing, particularly if you cease to be the party in power. While legislating morals is a dangerous practice, I am not sure I can see this shift in Georgia.

Erick thinks that while Christian influence on a national level is decreasing, it is still strong on the state level.

We discussed briefly the proposed constitutional amendment to define life that may come to a vote in the 2008 legislature. Erick has seen the definition of “life,” which apparently says that life begins at conception and ends at natural death. (Is death by execution a “natural” death?) The interesting thing is that Erick says the National Right to Life and Americans United for Life oppose the Georgia amendment. The consensus is that it is unconstitutional and a waste of taxpayers’ money to even put it on the ballot. Now, does anyone want to bet whether or not they (the Republican leaders of Georgia) go ahead and waste out time and money?

Rudy Giuliani: I had never heard there was an “Italian vote,” but Erick says there is a big one and it could make the difference if the final match is Hillary versus Giuliani. The Italian vote generally splits 55/45 Democrat, but with Rudy it splits 85/15 Rudy. If the final duel is between two New Yorkers, Erick says Hillary will have a harder time in the South than Giuliani because she has to also overcome the “woman” factor. Maybe, maybe not.

And what issues will the 2008 election turn on? I wasn’t surprised to hear that the usual domestic issues from healthcare to the deficit would be significant, but I almost fell over when Erick told me that big business CEOs were now primarily supporting Democratic candidates because they want big government to take some of the big issues off their shoulders, such as health care. Make it a government program! Who cares, just get it off the bottom line of the profit and loss statement. I guess that makes sense, but I just don’t see the CEO of Walmart as a Democrat.

Opposing the Democratic CEOs are the Republican Entrepreneurs, those who still think the private sector can deal with most of these problems. What problems? I guess like Blackwater solving the problem of not enough troops on the ground.

I guess only time will tell if Erick’s observations about trends prove correct, but it is always a pleasure to get his viewpoint. We did agree on one thing: No one wants another Bush!